THE DOOMSDAY CLOCK & RISK MANAGEMENT

Of late the world’s media has been full of articles about the Doomsday Clock being only three minutes to midnight according to the “Bulletin of Atomic Scientists”. That is the closest the clock has been to Doomsday, the end of the world, since Orwell’s 1984.

It’s mainly down to nuclear proliferation, geo-political posturing and global warming.
If you have one, has your head of risk even mentioned it? I doubt it although you might think there is little you can do about it. In fact any man made doomsday scenario will take time to play out, maybe even decades, so why not plan for it?

Precisely when they changed the clock is a mystery but they might have moved it even closer to midnight had they known at that time the very recent news that the Israelis did not totally quash Syria’s attempts to develop nuclear weapons when they bombed Al-Kibar in September 2007. Assad and his merry men are still meant to have about 50 tons of natural uranium for future use and enrichment*.

There is apparently an underground facility about two miles from the Syrian/Lebanese border at Al-Qusayr which was until earlier this month controlled by Hezbollah. Were those who control the clock aware of this? Who knows but it is quite likely they had no idea that this year nuclear warheads will almost assuredly be under the control of a Middle Eastern based terrorist organisation.

The Syrians, supported by Dim Kim Jong-un’s North Korea, are or were using the Al-Qusayr facility to construct a nuclear reactor. They have or had enough natural uranium which once enriched could make up to three nuclear bombs. Now, this factory is not in one of the safest places in the world*.

According to reports over the last two weeks about six hundred “soldiers” from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the Al-Qusayr region defected to support ISIL. They were part of a larger force of 3,000 FSA fighters who defected to ISIS in the nearby Qalamoun Mountains earlier this month.

Precisely who now controls the labyrinth of underground facilities is not known hence the earlier caution* about stating who holds the uranium and controls the facility now. However, not if but when ISIL get their hands on the stuff then, thanks to North Korea’s support for Syria, ISIL will become a nuclear power instead of Hezbollah and Damascus. Take your pick twixt Hezbollah and ISIL but neither is even represented on the UN Security Council although Syria and the DPRK are honorary UN members of course!

What happens next is anybody’s guess but it looks like Armageddon is on its way for some of us starting this year. Maybe that clock should be moved a minute nearer to midnight because no matter how you interpret all this terrorists are about to own nuclear warheads. Exactly how far any resulting war spreads and over what time frame is anybody’s guess.

If you do have a risk department or risk director (or better still if you don’t!) then you should plan ahead as your natural life may still run its course in the “three minutes” left. Why? Three minutes can soon become three decades.

For some (such as astrologists or dragon flies) minutes are decades and vice versa but there is almost always time enough to do something if you squeeze it in – like say reading a book that might change your approach to life. I’m not talking about anything grandiose; “Beyond Enkription in The Burlington Files series would suffice. At least you or your head of risk would never make dumb assumptions again about how long a few minutes lasts!

So, if you do have a head of risk who hasn’t reported all this, now is the time he or she should be sacked! There is usually time if you make it.

Sources: The International Atomic Energy Authority, Der Spiegel, IntelNews, Almasdarnews et al

This article was first published on 23rd January 2015.

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